Italy Edges Through to Set Up Final with Spain

It's the unpredictability that makes football attractive; even though at last the better team won. It was a well-anticipate tactical battle between the two sides. After 90 minutes of excitement, we have indeed enjoyed a good one.

With two days and thirty minutes less recovery time, Prandelli did not restore Motta back in the lineup but stuck with the diamond four that crushed England in the Quarter Finals. The return of Chiellini was timely against a free-flowing Germany side.

Joachim Low dropped Thomas Muller for Toni Kroos, as he knew they needed more possession and flair to penetrate the solid Italian defence. There were debates over starting Mario Gomez or Miroslav Klose. Unarguably, the former was chosen for his physical presence.

Before one's tactical excellence was being appreciated, Italy nearly destroyed herself. The first 20 minutes was sloppy, sluggish and clumsy. Andrea Pirlo saved Buffon with his error in judgement in a German corner; Barzagli’s rebound off Buffon’s parry was just two inches away from goal; Bonucci even hit a long pass straight at the back of De Rossi.

If Spain were to beat Italy, the key might lie in the first half of first half. When their nerves have settled, their class and experience still ranks in the first tier among top international teams. Another great diagonal pass from Pirlo and Cassano’s aerobatic turn around the young Hummels brought them the lead. Balotelli capitalized on a cheap error by Germany in defending counter attack from corner clearance to double the lead.

Italy did look like they were favourites, because all they had to do for the rest of the game was defend --- their proudest strength in football.

Montolivo was the star in first half. Although failing to fire a shot in an open opportunity, he bridged between midfield and forward in style and gave his team everything after the missed penalty against England. He repaid the faith of Prandelli and shone in the trequartista role.

On the other hand, Podolski was a huge disappointment, whereas Mesut Ozil was squeezed to the right to make way for Toni Kroos. Ozil did indeed look much more lively in the 2^nd half back to the playmaker role, while Kroos’ involvement in the game was long shots that were threatening but not rewarding. 

A poor Germany midfield led to the substitution of Gomez in half time. The Bayern striker had little supply for 45 minutes, and the Germans needed Klose’s movement to spark off the comeback.

Inserting Reus was the right move to challenge Chiellini’s fitness level. Joined by Boateng and Khedira, Reus made instant impact on the right flank and Germany started to threaten.

Having survived the first 10 mins of the second half, Prandelli removed the exhausted Cassano and Montolivo. The introduction of Thaigo Motta allowed De Rossi to sit even deeper and to relieve Chiellini’s pressure. Thereby, Italy never looked like a side who would concede the game.

Rather than individual brilliance, it was a team effort that brought Italy through. Losing the more adventurous Maggio and Abate helped to stabilise the back four against the talented Germany, but Marchisio and De Rossi were exceptional, particularly in the last 20 minutes. De Rossi dropped back into his own box and Marchisio filled up the right back to allow extra aerial presence in the box.

Balzaretti had a fantastic tournament. He has shown his attacking ability at left back, but he was just as comfortable defending at right back. Crucial clearances, shot-blockings and interceptions were everywhere all night.

Joachim Low was a bit late in getting the team going as the Germans looked apparently different between the two halves, but Prandelli managed to gather the focus of his team when it matters. When a manager can ask Balotelli to help in defence and go at half chances, you know there is something special with him. Italy showed that they can also look fluent and danger in their possession game, but a quicker start and better finishing will be needed to stop Spain from achieving a record-breaking hat-trick of international tournament victories.

How England 4-4-2 has fallen apart

The semi-finalists of Euro 2012 have one thing in common – employing a 4-3-3 formation that affords an extra central midfielder. It has not only become a trend but more of a blueprint for success in modern football. Yet a mere two months to prepare for the Euros, Roy Hodgson could not help but fall back to his comfort zone by employing the 4-4-2 formation which he has used in West Bromwich Albion, also a formation that most England players are familiar with.

While undoing Fabio Capello’s hard work in importing the 4-3-3 or semi 4-5-1 to England in the last two years, Hodgson could have done better to reduce the risk of backfiring from the reverse of tactics as his 4-4-2 never looked commanding. 

The main attacking threat of the 4-4-2 formation comes from the flanks. Wingers and overlapping fullbacks conspire on the flanks and deliver to the two forwards up front. A combination of energy and technique from the side players is vital for duly carrying out defending and attacking duties. The pair of central midfielders must also be energetic and marauding as their main responsibility lies in protecting the back four as well as transiting defence to attack. When opponents may well field three central midfielders nowadays, the ability to hold on to possession is also desired.

The 03/04 team of Arsenal, famously dubbed ‘The Invincibles’, was an exemplary illustration of the 4-4-2 formation. Lauren and Ashley Cole looked tireless and consistent going up and down while Ljungberg and Pires kept their opposing full backs on their toes all the time. Vieira and Gilberto Silva were not only strong shields in the middle of the park but they were able to contribute in attacking moves as well. The strike force of Bergkamp and Henry was just exceptionally complementary.

As Arsene Wenger failed to find proper players to fulfil the 4-4-2 formation, he has turned to the more popular 4-3-3 in recent seasons. However it was England that stayed with 4-4-2. In order to make up for the disadvantage in central midfield compared to 4-3-3, there are of course tactical remedies, such as 1) playing a no. 9.5 striker to drop back; 2) employing defensive wingers; 3) using the central midfield pair to make extra runs and cover the deficit; 4) playing a higher up defensive line.

It was evident Hodgson did ask a striker to drop back, although Rooney seemed to have roam away quite often to attack. The England manager fielded the defensive James Milner and also asked Ashley Young to help Ashley Cole with defensive duties but sacrificed significantly in attack. Yet with Parker and Gerrard both not in their prime days of career, England technically gave in to the -1 man advantage in midfield. A high defensive line was not always practised either as Terry and Lescott are never known to be quick. With this squad selection, the 4-4-2 simply doesn’t work, except for the time against Sweden when Theo Walcott provided an impetus after coming off the bench to unleash the attack from the sidelines.

It's not their fault of being old

Perhaps even Hodgson himself was not convinced that his midfield duo were capable of winning the midfield battle, attacking wingers like Walcott, Oxlade-Chamberlain and Downing could only be left on the bench while nine players defended in their own half, giving away a lot of ground. This then leads us to another question – central midfield candidates.

If Hodgson was going for a hardworking and tenacious pair, why was Phil Jones not used for a single second to relieve some of the tired legs? The way to minimise physical exertion is to keep possession and while regulars in the Capello era Lampard and Barry were injured, Paul Scholes and Michael Carrick, who ran the central midfield successfully in Manutd’s 4-4-2, were not even approached nor considered but the ever-looking-confused Henderson was instead called up.

The pair who may possess the missing ingredients for England

Cesare Prandelli also had 23 players in his squad but he was able to find out the shortfalls of Italy’s performance and rectify them by altering formations and the selection of players. England, on the other hand, may be disillusioned by their 1^st place finish in group stage and hence failed to acknowledge the inadequacy of their formation. Should they win the penalty shootout (don’t get me started on how obviously they played for the shootout), Mesut Ozil would just be, if not more severe, tearing the England defence apart humiliatingly.

Roy Hodgson Has to Take Some Blame

Roy Hodgson has the best excuse in the world for any failures in the tournament; does it mean there was nothing more he could do?

a)    Tactical flaws: To ask Parker and Gerrard, both in their 30s, to perform consistently in the central midfield of the 4-4-2 is demanding with consecutive matches within 3 days. Coming to the tournament to play defensive football, the very last thing the British expect is probably leave their fate to penalties. Unfortunately, this was Hodgson’s plan. In fact, the best game they had played in the tournament was the 2^nd half vs Sweden when they were 1-2 down, because they let their football flow, and they attacked. 

(b)   Squad selection: The only natural central midfielder to cover for Parker is Jordan Henderson; With Gary Cahill injured, all we saw was Lescott and Terry clearing the ball into row Z every game. Where is Rio? The reason why England failed to keep possession is because they never played their way out of defence (Keep Calm and Carry on, eh?)

(c)    Stubbornness: Public has been discussing about how poor Ashley Young had been in the tournament. In truth, he did his defensive duties duly but was only as poor as Carroll and Rooney in creating chances. If he was that poor, why weren’t Chamberlain or Downing given more opportunities? Was Phil Jones’ energy and Jagielka’s solidity ever utilised? Did they think of Leighton Baines when the game was heading towards penalties? There is a reason why they allow you to pick 23 players.   

Roy Hodgson may just have two months since he accepted his proudest job in his career but a manager with such vast experience, if not ability, should and could have done much better if he is to win the hearts and hope of England again after a long reign of disappointment on national level.  Despite exiting the tournament ‘unbeaten in normal time’, uncertainty lies ahead with just two years left before the World Cup.

Van Marwijk's Schoolboy Errors

It would be harsh to say the Netherlands need a miracle to qualify but things could have turned out more satisfactory for the Euro 1988 Champions. A win over desperate-to-prove-themselves Portugal by two clear goals as well as a defeat of Denmark by the Germans would prevent a premature but worthy exit from the group stage. So how did it all go wrong?

Goal-Scoring

In 2011, the Netherlands won 5 out of 6 Euro Qualifying fixtures and scored a total of 25 goals, with the red-hot Van Persie and Huntelaar ‘The Hunter’ bagging 6 and 5 respectively. The Oranje squad also boasts a prolific Luuk De Jong, who scored 25 times in 24 matches in the Eredivisie but few would have expected the team to only have scored one goal in two group stage matches.

When the Netherlands needed goals, Van Marwijk did turn to Huntelaar but the Bundesliga top scorer was given too little time to have an impact. Elsewhere, De Jong may have fewer doubts why he starts on the bench but his coach’s decision to keep Van Persie on the pitch for both matches meant he has yet featured for his country in the tournament. Should Van Marwijk be more resolute in taking off the ineffective starting striker, his other two bench strikers may have answered his call for goals.

Oops...

Team Selection

It may not be a surprise to see Sneijder and Affelay in the usual starting line-up for the Netherlands but when you know that the former has only played a bit-part role this season at Inter and Affelay has only played for 100 minutes of competitive football since late April after being out injured for nearly 7 months, are they still worth to start, especially in the group of death? Van der Vaart, who has played 26 matches and contributed 11 goals and 7 assists in the 10/11 Premier League, had to settle for an understudy role and Affelay’s inclusion in the squad was equivocal as though form and fitness are no longer necessary requirements to be in the lineup. Had Van der Vaart started the game, whether alongside or in place of either one of them, wouldn’t there a difference?

In the crucial matchup against Germany, Van Marwijk reinstated first-choice Mathijsen at centreback but it was his first match since injuring his hamstring a week before the tournament kicked off. It was obviously not his best game, although it could be worse if Vlaar kept his place, but Boulahrouz, who played 21 league matches for Stuttgart this season and has 35 caps for his country, would be disappointed as he was completely overlooked. M’vila was a key member for Laurent Blanc’s France but he was not rushed in the squad; rarely do coaches do that right?

Van Bommel, one of the most practical midfielders the Oranje have ever produced, may have been a regular at Milan but at the age of 35, he may not be able to maintain a consistent performance in a tight group stage schedule. He was absolutely out-paced by the lively German midfield and was hauled off for Van der Vaart at half time. If Van der Vaart is to replace Sneijder in the attacking midfield role, Schaars and Strootman are good players that could offer energy and dynamics to take Van Bommel’s place as well. I hope the next time Van Bommel starts for the Netherlands, it’s not because he is the captain of the country, or because he is Van Marwijk’s son-in-law but because it’s a correct tactical decision.

Bolton Will Wander Back Next Season

“Struggling” is not an unfamiliar term for Bolton F.C. in their 11-year spell in the EPL. There were moments they fought against relegation; there were times they lost the team balance due to European distraction; there were times they had to resist the departure of their key players.

Sam Allardyce has raised Bolton’s profile in England, beating Preston North End in a play-off final to return to the Premier League in the 00/01 campaign. High-profile stars in their twilight were persuaded to the Reebok stadium and when blended with the industrious and vigorous Wanderers, Allardyce introduced a pragmatic style – to say the least – of football that saw the Trotters finish in the top half of the Premier League table in 4 consecutive seasons, a record only surpassed by the traditional big four.

When Big Sam resigned due to personal reasons in the final stages of the 06/07 season, Bolton finished 7^th and qualified for the UEFA Cup. Yet the next season was nothing alike as a poor run of results saw them narrowly avoiding relegation on the final day of the season.

Owen Coyle was hired mid-way through 09/10 season to replace Gary Megson, hoping to restore the once-forceful Big Sam era. Having retained another season in the top flight, Coyle, however, was given little financial backing with debt piling up in Bolton’s account.

Having already been forced to trim the squad, Owen Coyle had to count on young guns and free signings to carry the team last year. In truth, Reo-Coker, Eagles, Tuncay, Boyata, Kakuta, and last-minute acquisition David N’Gog should be quite enough to make up for the loss of Elmander, Cohen and Matthew Taylor.

Nevertheless, things weren’t going their way even in pre-season games. South Korean ace Chun-Young Lee suffered a broken leg to keep him out for the whole season. Stuart Holden, another impressive player, failed to return to fitness after six months of rehabilitation and was ruled out for the season as well.

Things got even worse with Muamba’s tragic collapse in March that left Bolton without the service of three key midfielders, which would form an above-par midfield with Reo-Coker and Martin Petrov. The lack of protection in front of the back four was risky, with Wheater and Tim Ream struggling to hold on the speedy Premier League strikers while Gary Cahill was set to leave.

The departure of Johan Elmander hurt indeed. Featuring a 4-5-1 formation, Elmander was the perfect striker with strong physicality and the ability to strike the ball with both feet. Coyle’s dubious striker choice was also a costly mistake. When Klasnic was sent off after posting some impressive performances early in the season, Coyle turned to Frenchman David N’Gog instead of captain Kevin Davies.

N’Gog’s style reminds us of his compatriot Nicolas Anelka, who played for Bolton in 2006-08, but N’Gog’s inability to convert chances has been widely criticised. With a team who banks their scoring heavily on dead balls and capitalising on chaotic situations in the box, one can imagine how disastrous it could be when N’Gog was the primary striker. Rumours of Coyle’s fallout with fan favourite Kevin Davies stirred up unwanted discontent. Davies’ unstoppable scoring form near the end of the season overshadowed the internal disputes, but also amplified his manager’s wrong decision in starting N’Gog instead. Bolton finally finished the season with the second worst goal difference in the league.

Many are more sympathetic towards Bolton’s catastrophic season, when even the referee’s decision went against them on the very last day, but the quality of performance they showed on both ends of the field was well below standard.

Relegation will almost certainly be followed by the exodus of big names. Reo-Coker, Ivan Klasnic etc have already left the club after the final day, whereas Jaaskelainen is also tipped to rejoin Big Sam at the newly promoted Hammers; fortunately, 35 years old Kevin Davies is determined to stay with Bolton. If they can retain the service of Chun Young Lee, Mark Davies, Stuart Holden and the rising star Bogdan, together with Coyle’s experience of floating between the Premier League and Championship, Bolton should still be ranked as a front-runner in the promotion race next season.  

Rolling the Dice --- a win or a draw in the first match in group stage

Two days into the European Championship, once again it seems defensive football is going to dominate the tournament. The famous (infamous?) success of Greece in 2004 has definitely inspired teams to focus on defense.

It is not wrong to be conservative in the first match of the group stage. After all, getting one point is better than getting none, but giving your opponents the edge in the relatively short three-match group stage could be costly.

In fact, there were only two teams each in the 2008 Euro and 2010 World Cup who have won the first match failed to qualify the group stage. The statistics have spoken; this ought to be a strong enough reason for teams to go for victory in the first match day.

Poland could only draw 10-men Greece in the opening match; with Russia bagging an emphatic victory, Poland has now put themselves in a situation where only a win could get them back in the race. However, if Smuda had decided to keep pressing for the second goal to clinch the game while playing with one more man, rather than giving up the ground to Greece even when they were 1-0 up, they might be going into the second match day targeting only a draw against Russia – which is a more realistic target – not to be forgotten they should be on a high note if they came on top of Greece.

The Netherlands, being drawn into the group of death, faced the "weakest" team in Group B, Denmark. Gaining an upper hand in a tough group could pile up the pressure on your opponents, particularly when Germany is already a tournament favourite and Die Mannschaft would play against Portugal with a heavy mental burden to avoid a group stage exit.

However Van Marwijk decided to play safe to start both Nigel De Jong and Van Bommel against a less-offensive and it turned out, unsurprisingly, De Jong ‘hardly sweated’ while his teammates up front were often out-numbered, as full-backs van der Wiel and Willems hardly linked up with attacks. Although they still had full control of the game, the lack of urgency only allowed Denmark's confidence to grow. As a result, they were defeated and deflated and the Oranje will know face an all-or-nothing fixture against Germany.

When you’ve spent so much time and effort in bringing your team into the finals, nobody would want the tournament to end at the group stage, as well as considering the pride and expectation of your country. Finding the right balance between playing attractive and entertaining football and ensuring qualification to the quarter-finals is perhaps the most difficult task for each and every manager, and while we could not estimate the pressure they are under, our expectation is just as immense.

A Brief What-to-Expect with the Euros

The Favourites

Spain v Germany v Netherlands

Spain: Jordi Alba, Juanfran, Negredo, Santi Cazorla are the only new entries compared to the World Cup 2010 squad so the bonding and teamwork within the national team will be of little doubt. Although the team will be missing Puyol and Villa, Del Bosque still has enough confidence to leave out 17-goal Soldado to bank on Llorente and Torres, hinting they will stick with their formidable 4-3-3. Fatigue will be the main concern as always, though, with key players like Xavi, Iniesta and Juan Mata playing almost 50 matches this season.

Germany: Dortmund and Bayern players make up half of the national team and only two players are from non-Germany teams. The selection of Dortmund-bound Marco Reus is definitely an element capable of surprising stubborn opponents. The key to success, however, will still be their midfield duo Khedira and Ozil as well as Toni Kroos, who has had a brilliant year covering up for his injured teammate Schweinsteiger. The energy in their front court is undoubtedly comparable to Spain, but Joachim Low will hope his defenders do not repeat the nightmare against Switzerland.

Netherlands: With 84 league goals amongst them this season, there is high expectation on RVP, Huntelaar and Luuk De Jong; but Dirk Kuyt and Wesley Sneijder are at their career low. The inclusion of 33-year-old Bouma is worrying as the Netherlands still lack the emergence of younger competent defenders. Whether the sluggish Van Bommel is still capable to provide the covering their defensive line needs will be vital. All in all, the squad is nowhere short of talents but the players’ form as well as fatigue may be a concern. With Van Marwijk most likely to play 4-3-3 as usual, the Oranje bench would boast a number of top goalkeepers and forwards.

Victim of the Group of Death

Portugal: A more imbalanced squad can be found for Portugal as they have one of the best in the world as well as next-to-anonymous midfielders. Fortunate enough to qualify for the tournament, they now face one of the toughest tasks after the previous golden generation to qualify from the group of death alongside Germany and Netherlands. Custodio will be hoping his fine form for Braga could challenge Miguel Veloso in the crucial defensive midfield role whereas Raul Meireles, revitalized at Chelsea this season, should step up and run the midfield hoping Ronaldo could continue with his goal-craze form. Full of flair but lacking proof in big tournaments as well as a spiritual leader; do not be surprised to see the Portuguese exit the finals prematurely.

Old Rivals

France v England

Young vs Old. Exciting vs Boring. Daring vs Stubborn. Laurent Blanc left his favourite Gourcuff out for the in-form Ben Arfa, while Remy will be missed after pulling out of the tournament due to a hamstring injury. Apart from central striker Benzema and Giroud, there is a handful possibility of combination in the frontline to surprise their opponents, but more importantly, they are all in selected because they are fit and in good form. On the other hand, Hodgson's selection is rather based on reputation and personal preference. Before injuries struck England, the same old back bone remained in the squad, it was not only now that the young Henderson and Kelly gets a taste of international football. Grant Holt, Adam Johnson, Jake Livermore and especially Micah Richards (what else does he have to do to make the squad?) will be at home, helplessly seeing their country likely to finish behind France at least in the group.

Needs a Morale Boost!

Surprising Squad! Italy, Russia

Hampered in selection by match-fixing scandals/investigations, Italy is not heading into the tournament at a high morale (most recently losing 0-3 to Russia), but being the underdogs may help ease the pressure of a relatively inexperienced squad. Captain Buffon will be playing his sixth major tournament for his country whereas Nocerino, Giaccherini, and Diamanti will be eager to impress in their debuts. However, who will Italy turn to when they need goals? Can the young Giovinco and eccentric Balotelli live up to expectations to support Di Natale? Surely not Cassano.